Questions on whether governments have acted promptly enough, and whether lockdown measures can be lifted soon, have since been central in public discourse. Data-driven models that predict COVID-19 fatalities under different lockdown policy scenarios are essential for addressing these questions and informing governments on future policy directions.

Global problems, such as pandemics and climate change, require rapid international coordination and diffusion of policy. These phenomena are rare however, with one notable example being the international policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. Here we build an agent-based model of this rapid policy diffusion, where countries constitute the agents and with the principal mechanism for diffusion being peer mimicry. Since it is challenging to predict accurately the policy diffusion curve, we utilize data assimilation, that is an ``on-line'' feed of data to constrain the model against observations. The specific data assimilation algorithm we apply is a particle filter because of its convenient implementation, its ability to handle categorical variables and because the model is not overly computationally expensive, hence a more efficient algorithm is not required. We find that the model alone is able to predict the policy diffusion relatively well with an ensemble of at least 100 simulation runs. The particle filter however improves the fit to the data, reliably so from 500 runs upwards, and increasing filtering frequency results in improved prediction.

Game theory has been an effective tool in the control of disease spread and in suggesting optimal policies at both individual and area levels. In this AMS Notices article, we focus on the decision-making development for the intervention of COVID-19, aiming to provide mathematical models and efficient machine learning methods, and justifications for related policies that have been implemented in the past and explain how the authorities' decisions affect their neighboring regions from a game theory viewpoint.

Public policies that supply public goods, especially those involve collaboration by limiting individual liberty, always give rise to controversies over governance legitimacy. Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) methods are appropriate for supporting the legitimacy of the public policies that supply public goods at the cost of individual interests. Among these policies, the inter-regional collaborative pandemic control is a prominent example, which has become much more important for an increasingly inter-connected world facing a global pandemic like COVID-19. Different patterns of collaborative strategies have been observed among different systems of regions, yet it lacks an analytical process to reason for the legitimacy of those strategies. In this paper, we use the inter-regional collaboration for pandemic control as an example to demonstrate the necessity of MARL in reasoning, and thereby legitimizing policies enforcing such inter-regional collaboration. Experimental results in an exemplary environment show that our MARL approach is able to demonstrate the effectiveness and necessity of restrictions on individual liberty for collaborative supply of public goods. Different optimal policies are learned by our MARL agents under different collaboration levels, which change in an interpretable pattern of collaboration that helps to balance the losses suffered by regions of different types, and consequently promotes the overall welfare. Meanwhile, policies learned with higher collaboration levels yield higher global rewards, which illustrates the benefit of, and thus provides a novel justification for the legitimacy of, promoting inter-regional collaboration. Therefore, our method shows the capability of MARL in computationally modeling and supporting the theory of calculus of consent, developed by Nobel Prize winner J. M. Buchanan.

The evolution of the Covid-19 has been posing several challenges to policymakers. Decisions have to be made in a timely fashion, without much undisputed evidence to support them. Being a new disease, and despite the enormous research effort to understand it, estimates of the transmission, recovery and death rates remain uncertain. Nevertheless, these are key pieces of information to assess potential pressures on the health system capacity, as well as the need of a lockdown policy and its intensity if implemented. Not surprisingly, similar regions have implemented different strategies regarding lockdowns. The leading example in the media is the looser social distancing policy in Sweden versus strict policies in its Scandinavian peers. By informally comparing the evolution of the pandemics in Sweden and Denmark (or Norway), many commentators argue that several Covid-19 cases and deaths in Sweden would be avoided in the short-run were a strict lockdown in place.